Forecasting mob based cattle weight gain (MB CWG) may benefit large livestock farms, allowing farmers to refine their feeding strategies, make educated breeding choices, and reduce risks linked to climate variability and market fluctuations. In this paper, a novel technique termed MB CWG is proposed to forecast the one month advanced weight gain of herd based cattle using historical data collected from the Charles Sturt University Farm. This research employs a Random Forest (RF) model, comparing its performance against Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models for monthly weight gain prediction. Four datasets were used to evaluate the performance of models, using 756 sample data from 108 herd-based cattle, along with weather data (rainfall and temperature) influencing CWG. The RF model performs better than the SVR and LSTM models across all datasets, achieving an R^2 of 0.973, RMSE of 0.040, and MAE of 0.033 when both weather and age factors were included. The results indicate that including both weather and age factors significantly improves the accuracy of weight gain predictions, with the RF model outperforming the SVR and LSTM models in all scenarios. These findings demonstrate the potential of RF as a robust tool for forecasting cattle weight gain in variable conditions, highlighting the influence of age and climatic factors on herd based weight trends. This study has also developed an innovative automated pre processing tool to generate a benchmark dataset for MB CWG predictive models. The tool is publicly available on GitHub and can assist in preparing datasets for current and future analytical research..

--With the advancement of energy Internet and energy system integration, the increasing adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems presents new challenges on smart monitoring and measurement for utility companies, particularly in separating PV generation from net electricity load. This paper proposes a PV disaggregation method that integrates Hierarchical Interpolation (HI) and multi-head self-attention mechanisms. By using HI to extract net load features and multi-head self-attention to capture the complex dependencies between weather factors, the method achieves precise PV generation predictions. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in real-world data, supporting improved monitoring and management of distributed energy systems. With the increasing adoption of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, an expanding number of residential prosumers, who both produce and consume electricity, are generating electricity through their PV installations.

Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction method. A conditional generative adversarial network is first presented to generate electricity price scenarios, with which the prediction intervals can be constructed. Then, different generated scenarios are stacked to obtain the probability densities, which can be applied to accurately reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices. Furthermore, a reinforced prediction mechanism based on the volatility level of weather factors is introduced to address the spikes or volatile prices. A case study is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed novel prediction interval construction method. The method can also provide the probability density of each price scenario within the prediction interval and has the superiority to address the volatile prices and price spikes with a reinforced prediction mechanism.

ABSTRACT Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the operation and planning of PV systems, thereby enabling efficient energy management and grid integration. However, un certainties caused by fluctuating weather conditions and complex interactions between different variables pose significant challenges to accurate PV power forecasting. In this study, we propose PV-Client (Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting) to address these challenges and enhance PV power forecasting accuracy. PV-Client employs an ENhanced Transformer module to capture complex interactions of various features in PV systems, and utilizes a linear module to learn trend information in PV power. Diverging from conventional time series-based Transformer models that use cross-time Attention to learn dependencies between different time steps, the Enhanced Transformer module integrates cross-variable Attention to capture dependencies between PV power and weather factors. Similarly, PV-Client outperforms the secondbest model SVR by 10.1% in MSE metrics and 0.2% in accuracy metrics at the Xinqingnian Station, and PV-Client exhibits superior performance compared to the second-best model SVR with enhancements of 3.4% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Hongxing Station. Keywords: PV power forecasting, PV-Client, Linear, Transformer, Cross-variable Attention NONMENCLATURE Abbreviations PV Photovoltaic Cross-variable Linear Integrated PV-Client ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting 1. INTRODUCTION Photovoltaic (PV) power, as a clean and renewable energy source, has gained significant attention in recent years driven by its potential to curtail carbon emissions and diminish the reliance on traditional fossil fuels [1]. The efficient utilization of PV energy relies heavily on accurate forecasting of PV system output. As we navigate towards a future dominated by sustainable energy, the role of accurate PV power forecasting stands as a pivotal element in achieving a harmonious coexistence between renewable sources and the established energy infrastructure. Numerous research studies have been conducted to devise accurate and computationally efficient forecasting models for PV power generation.

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical parametrization process, and computation limitation. With the roaring growth of deep learning-based techniques, we propose the Dual-Stage Adaptive Framework (DSAF), a novel framework to address regional NWP downscaling and bias correction tasks. DSAF uniquely incorporates adaptive elements in its design to ensure a flexible response to evolving weather conditions. Specifically, NWP downscaling and correction are well-decoupled in the framework and can be applied independently, which strategically guides the optimization trajectory of the model. Utilizing a multi-task learning mechanism and an uncertainty-weighted loss function, DSAF facilitates balanced training across various weather factors. Additionally, our specifically designed attention-centric learnable module effectively integrates geographic information, proficiently managing complex interrelationships. Experimental validation on the ECMWF operational forecast (HRES) and reanalysis (ERA5) archive demonstrates DSAF's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art models and shows substantial improvements when existing models are augmented using our proposed modules. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/pengwei07/DSAF.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) may be inaccurate or biased due to incomplete atmospheric physical processes, insufficient spatial-temporal resolution, and inherent uncertainty of weather. Previous studies have attempted to correct biases by using handcrafted features and domain knowledge, or by applying general machine learning models naively. They do not fully explore the complicated meteorologic interactions and spatial dependencies in the atmosphere dynamically, which limits their applicability in NWP bias-correction. Specifically, weather factors interact with each other in complex ways, and these interactions can vary regionally. In addition, the interactions between weather factors are further complicated by the spatial dependencies between regions, which are influenced by varied terrain and atmospheric motions. To address these issues, we propose WeatherGNN, an NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to learn meteorologic and geographic relationships in a unified framework. Our approach includes a factor-wise GNN that captures meteorological interactions within each grid (a specific location) adaptively, and a fast hierarchical GNN that captures spatial dependencies between grids dynamically. Notably, the fast hierarchical GNN achieves linear complexity with respect to the number of grids, enhancing model efficiency and scalability. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of WeatherGNN in comparison with other SOTA methods, with an average improvement of 40.50\% on RMSE compared to the original NWP.

Time lag between variables is a key characteristics of dynamical systems in different fields and identifying such time lag is an important problem in complex systems with many applications. Transfer Entropy (TE) was proposed as a tool for time lag identification recently. Unfortunately, estimating TE has been a notoriously difficult problem. Copula Entropy (CE) is a measure of statistical independence and it was proved that TE can be represented with only CE. Therefore, a non-parametric estimator of TE based on CE was proposed according to such representation recently. In this paper we propose to use the CE-based estimator of TE to identify time lag in dynamical systems. Both simulated and real data are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the experiments. Experimental results show that the proposed method can identify the time lags in the four simulated systems. The real data experiment with the data on power consumption of the Tetouan city also demonstrates that our method can identify the pattern of time lags through the estimated TE from the weather factors to the power consumption of the city.